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Five reasons why the Broncos exceeded expectations at midseason

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Five reasons why the Broncos exceeded expectations at midseason

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. broncos They reached the halfway point of the 2024 season with little uncertainty about what they were after.

“The goal for this team and what we can do is definitely the postseason.” Mike McGlinchey he said this week. “We are striving for this. … If you’re playing for anything else, you’re playing for the wrong reasons.”

McGlinchey said the Broncos aspire to play in games that matter “in the bigger picture” in November and December and will find themselves facing each other on a Sunday. Baltimore Ravens. Both teams are 5-3 and would be in the AFC playoffs if the tournament started today. That’s something to be expected from the Ravens, who made the AFC Championship Game in January, made the playoffs in five of the last six seasons and added an incoming Hall of Famer running back this spring. Derrick Henry already has an explosive offense anchored by a two-time MVP quarterback. Lamar Jackson.

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Prognosticators and oddsmakers expected the Broncos to win five or six games. Not at the end of October like Denver did, but all season long. The negative outlook comes after an offseason in which the Broncos released the veteran quarterback RussellWilson and took in a record $85 million in dead money in the process; The Broncos are getting $53 million of this this season. Broncos parted ways with several veterans, including Pro Bowl safety justin simmonsand allow other long-time starters like center Lloyd Cushenberry and inside linebacker Josey Jewell sign elsewhere. Stranded in salary cap space, the Broncos found replacements through internal promotions, unbought free-agent acquisitions and new draft picks, including a first-round quarterback Bo Nix.

Overall, outsiders were unimpressed with the collection of talent the Broncos had assembled. Maybe it could come together over time, but few have targeted the Broncos as a viable playoff contender this season.

“A lot of people write us off based on the personnel we have on our team,” the wide receiver said. Courtland Sutton He said on Wednesday: “and that’s totally okay. “We love it.”

The Broncos still have a long way to go, and much more will be known about this team after their away games against AFC powers: the Ravens on Sunday and Kansas City Chiefs But first, let’s take a closer look at why the Broncos are already ahead of schedule as they prepare for what they helped turn into a marquee matchup in Baltimore:

Run defense changes the color of games

The Broncos’ defense found steady ground last season after a historically poor start through their first five games. But even amid a turnaround fueled largely by midseason takeaways, Denver hasn’t been able to consistently stop that run. When general manager George Paton spoke at the meeting NFL He said at the Scouting Combine in February that improving the rushing defense was high on his priority list.

Eight games into the season, the Broncos rank sixth in TruMedia’s measure of defensive offensive success and fifth in opponent yards per carry (4.0). This is a wholesale change from 2023, when Denver finished last in yards per carry allowed (5.0) and 28th in defensive rushing success. Broncos devote some of their limited offseason capital to the defensive line, signing run-stopping specialist Malcolm Roach in free agency and trade John Franklin-Myers just before the draft. They were added to a group that already included veterans DJ Jones And Zach AllenHe’s having the best season of his career, in part because teams can’t consistently double him at every opportunity, as they often did last season.

Even during the offseason, Allen felt how effective it could be for the Broncos to have better balance.

“Like at Franklin-Myers, if you do that to a guy, the other guy fights one-on-one,” he said during training camp. “I like our one-on-one chances. We both have a history of winning these at a high rate, so it’s been really fun so far. “I’m excited to see this in a gaming environment.”

It wasn’t just the interior defensive line. outside linebacker Jonathan Cooper He ranks seventh among edge defenders in ESPN’s run-to-interception win ratio. Was instrumental in secondary run support – Pat Surtain’s fourth tackle for loss panthers Sunday was the latest example of that, with the Broncos playing a more offensive one-gap scheme that suits Denver’s defensive talent.

“It’s good complementary football,” Allen said.

Nix’s dislike of negative games

Constantly praising a quarterback for his ability to avoid sacks and turnovers might seem like a veiled compliment.

He may not be doing X, Y, or Z, but at least he’s avoiding negative play.

But this trait of a quarterback is as critical as anything else in coach Sean Payton’s world. When the coach spoke to reporters at the NFL league meetings in March, a month before the Broncos selected Nix with the 12th overall pick, he emphasized how critical avoiding takedowns would be for his offense. That was the obvious sore spot with Wilson, who was sacked 100 times in 30 starts during his two seasons as Denver’s quarterback.

“NO. 1, we can’t get that many sacks,” Payton said at the time. “When you look at any data on what it does for your drives, I think that was a big thing that hurt us a year ago.”

Nix was sacked 11 times through eight games. Only buffalo‘s Josh Allen (10) were tackled less frequently among all quarterbacks with at least seven starts. Denver’s 4 percent sack rate is the lowest in the NFL.

Outside of Sunday’s win against the Panthers, the Broncos weren’t good on third down, an issue that limited an at-times dynamic offense (16th in explosive play rate at 11.4 percent). But the Broncos still rank 20th in scoring (21.63 points per game), largely because they dominate the battle for field position. Denver has the second-best kickoff possession margin in the NFL (an average of 6.9 yards better than its opponents).

There are many factors behind this figure. A defense that ranks No. 2 in the NFL in sacks (30) and has 12 takeaways. A special teams unit that specializes in spotting teams in depth. A solid punt returner Marvin Mims Jr. But Nix’s ability to avoid negative plays (he also has just one interception in his last five games) factored into that equation. This is part of a larger formula that helps the Broncos be competitive week in and week out.

Secondary healed

The Broncos drew attention in March by moving on from Simmons, who had the most interceptions in the league with 30 interceptions from the time he was drafted by Denver in 2016 to the end of last season. This was part of the general skepticism about Denver’s plans to solidify its secondary around All-Pro cornerback Pat Surtain II.

Broncos start by re-signing safety P.J. LockeHe played in the starting five for the first time in the second half of the 2023 season and signed a contract with his former team. dolphins defensive back Brandon Jones A modest three-year, $20 million deal was reached. Once the season ended, it was clear the Broncos would be moving on from their veteran No. 2 cornerback. Fabian MoreauBut it was less clear who would emerge from the list of reserve candidates, which included third-year players. Damarri Mathisveteran free agent recruiting Levi Wallace And Riley MossAs a rookie third-round pick in 2023, his work was largely limited to special teams.

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At least up to this point, all moves have been accurate.

Moss has emerged as a clear upgrade as the No. 2 cornerback opposite Surtain. Jones and Locke gave defensive coordinator Vance Joseph flexibility with a passing offense that created pressure in every area of ​​the field. Ja’Quan McMillianHe made his first interception of the season in Sunday’s win over the Panthers and has been a revelation at the nickel spot since assuming that role four games into the 2023 season. Already a one-time All-Pro and two-time Pro Bowler entering his fourth season, Surtain is playing the best football of his career as the Broncos haven’t left their opponents with any obvious weaknesses to exploit in the second round.

This chain reaction gave Denver’s passers more time to get home.

“We talk about it all week long,” McMillian said. “We want to stop the run first and then get them on pass rushes. We have a pretty good secondary and the guys up front get to the quarterback. We work together to get sacks. We keep the receivers up long enough for them to get the sacks.”

Winning on the margins

When Riley Dixon When he initiated a first-quarter punt toward the goal line against the Panthers on Sunday, three Broncos were there to make sure he didn’t reach the end zone. tremon smith He knocked the ball back as he jumped over the goal line. Landed in the arms of the hard-charging tight end Lucas Krullexpertly deflected it back to his teammate J.L. SkinnerHe collected it at the 1 yard line.

This play marked the fourth time this season that the Broncos pinned an opponent at the 1-yard line. Only two teams since 2000 have created four such plays over the course of an entire season, and the Broncos still have nine games remaining. It’s a testament to the little things the Broncos have done to win games this season.


Lucas Krull returns a punt to prevent it from landing in the end zone against the Panthers. (AAron Ontiveroz/Getty Images)

The Broncos have avoided most of the operational issues that plagued them early last season. Although Payton was frustrated by some of the penalties that occurred late in the victory against the Panthers, the Broncos mostly kept the snap penalties at bay. Denver has committed only four false start violations this season; for example, it was among the fewest draws in the NFL.

Payton was bothered by the offensive bumbling problem. This included one from each of the buyers Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Sutton on Sunday. But in most respects the Broncos win by a wide margin; They will need to do this to an even greater extent starting from Sunday’s match.

“We know that if we go out there and execute the way we know how to execute, execute and minimize negative plays and things that can hurt us, we feel like we can compete with anybody,” Sutton said.

Convenient early schedule

Broncos’ team won this season pirates, Jets, Raiders, saints and the Panthers. The combined record of these teams in their last five games: 3-22. Of this group, only Tampa Bay has a .500 record, and the other four have at least a four-game losing streak.

Still, the Broncos did what good teams should do against such opponents. The Broncos’ five victories were achieved by a combined 73 points, and their plus-53-point margin ranks fifth-best in the NFL.

Simply put, the Broncos got the job done. For a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in nine years, this shouldn’t be taken lightly.

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(Top photo of Riley Moss celebrating interception: Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

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