Four reasons why Indiana is the most impressive contender in the 12-team College Football Playoff

The College Football Playoff expansion was made for teams such as: indiana.

Coach Curt “Google me” Cignetti and the Hoosiers are having one of the greatest seasons in program history. The history of Indiana football dates back to the 1880s, and it was the first time a 9-0 score was encountered. The Hoosiers have never won more than 10 games in a season; That’s a number they could reach on Saturday against Michigan. Indiana, which has beaten the Wolverines just 10 times in 72 games, leads the reigning national champion by 14 1/2 points. per BetMGM. This is a very striking sentence.

Indiana’s rise from 3-9 to a relentless bulldozer tearing down everything in its path under a first-year coach is one of the stories of the season. It’s perfect timing as it coincides with a new playoff format that aims to reward more teams. The final Cinderella team will play for the national championship, rather than being sent to a bowl game to potentially face an opponent with most of the starting lineup opted out.

Maybe.

Indiana ranked 8th The selection committee’s first rankings on Tuesday nightthe first CFP Top 25 in the new 12-team format takes the 9th seed against the 8th seed Tennessee (placed 7th overall) in the first round.

The Hoosiers’ overall value has the potential to be the most compelling case study in Year 1 of this new system, a Rorschach test for the committee and the fans. What do you see in the Hoosiers: a good team that beats the sandbags, or a team that can compete with the best in the country?

HERE.

The first official college football Playoff 12-team matchup of the 2024 season.

Detail: pic.twitter.com/IP64DBpXUy

— Athletic (@TheAthletic) 6 November 2024

To be clear, we’re not assuming anything.

We wouldn’t dare recommend point guard Cignetti. Kurtis Rourketransit terrorism Mikail Kamara and the company fails to finish the regular season undefeated; This includes a win against No. 3 Ohio State – and we enter the Big Ten championship game with a berth in CFP safety just by playing for seeding.

Austin Mock’s model Although there is only a 10 percent chance of winning the Big Ten, Indiana has an 85 percent chance of making the Playoffs. From where? Indiana could very well lose at Ohio State on Nov. 23. With an 11-1 loss to the Buckeyes — for the sake of this exercise, let’s make the outcome of the game less than a nail-biter, but not exactly like Ohio State. blowout – Indiana would likely be out of the Big Ten championship game.

It’s easy to tell that the 11-1 Big Ten team is a lock. And trust us, everyone in the conference office in Rosemont, Illinois, will be championing it. But Indiana could be a test case for many CFP selection theories.

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How much does the committee value the strength of the program?

It would be difficult to argue that any serious contender for an at-large CFP bid has played a weaker schedule than Indiana to this point. None of the numerous measures of schedule strength look positive for the Hoosiers so far. ESPN’s FPI ranked Indiana’s SOS 103rd out of 134 Football Bowl Subdivision teams. The only other Power 4 team ranked outside the top 90 is Utah, ranked 100th. Mock ranks Indiana’s 82nd strength on the past schedule and its 22nd remaining strength.

Last improvement made by washington And UCLA You have to help the Hoosiers. Nebraska’s slide doesn’t slide. The Hoosiers’ non-conference schedule was particularly weak (FIU, Western Illinois and Charlotte) and they won’t get much of a boost from their match this weekend. Michigan (5-4) is probably what they expected a month ago. But of course, Ohio State will provide a big boost to Indiana. It doesn’t seem fair to spoil the way the Hoosiers’ season is played in Columbus, but if they’re going to be thrown into the same bracket as a large group of contenders that includes a handful of 10-2 SEC teams — like, say, Alabama – just one defeat less may not be a deciding factor.

Do you have doubts about computers? What about this is from Fox’s Chris FallicaHe noted that Indiana could finish 11-1 with zero wins against teams in the AP Top 25 with a single point.

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It’s not just who you play with, it’s how you play

Indiana is a wagon. The committee doesn’t actually use a metric titled Game Control, but the Hoosiers would be the kings of it.

Indiana leads the nation in scoring margin at 27.8 points per game. Last week, they fell behind for the first time all season. Michigan StateThen he scored 47 consecutive points and won 47-10.

The committee does not emphasize the margin of victory so as not to encourage increased scoring. This is a silly nod to sportsmanship because actual running is so rare. Domination comes in other ways, too, and you can’t miss it with the Hoosiers. The same metrics that dislike Indiana’s schedule and adjust to the quality of opponents still appreciate what’s going on with the Hoosiers. Indiana sits 10th in FPI, fresh off undefeated loss Miami and right in front of you Penn State.

Indiana beats bad and mediocre opponents like an elite team would.

The power of the Big Ten

Let’s call it what it is: The Big Ten and SEC sent a message to the selection committee: We are better than other leagues and should act that way.

Will the committee accept this point? What happens if there is a “bid theft” situation in the ACC or Big 12? For example, what happens if Miami loses the ACC championship game and remains at 12-1 in the at-large pool? How about evaluating Indiana at 12-1? BYU under similar conditions?

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Eye test and the strength of the logo

When we talk about the eye test, we usually mean: How do you get hired? Comparisons to SEC teams become especially difficult for Indiana at this point. Alabama, Tennessee, LSUTexas A&M and ole miss They all look really good stepping off the bus, and we know they have squads that can compete at a high level, even if their resumes aren’t popular. I’m looking at you, Tennessee.

How much does brand value enter the process? Put Alabama on one side and Indiana on the other and ask who is better. How about an 11-1 head-to-head? Notre-Dame and 11-1 Indiana?

Of course, depending on how things go in the country, there might be enough room for all these teams.

Welcome to the College Football Playoff race, Hoosiers. Your participation has made the coming month much more interesting.

(Photo: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)