All the advantages the Bills have over the Chiefs

It’s time to go, people.

In one of the most anticipated matchups of 2024 NFL offer, Buffalo Bills will host the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs Sunday afternoon at Highmark Stadium, this is the fifth straight time these two AFC powerhouses have met in the regular season.

The Bills have won the last three games played at Arrowhead Stadium. The last time these two teams met in Orchard Park during the regular season was in 2020, a game with zero members of the Bills Mafia in attendance due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Chiefs earned a 26-17 victory that Monday night.

Unfortunately, Sean McDermott’s team hasn’t translated their recent success against Kansas City into the postseason.

In addition to the four regular season meetings these two teams have played in the last four years, they have met three times in the playoffs; The Chiefs won all three; the last one came less than 10 months later in the Divisional Round. first in western New York.

But it’s done, and the Bills need to focus on beating this KC team that looks very beatable despite winning its last 15 games since last season. Seven of the Chiefs’ nine wins this year have been by seven points or less. And their +58 point differential is the lowest among 9-0 teams in league history. So there’s some sense of fragility here.

Is this a must-win for Buffalo? Absolutely not. The Bills are already guaranteed to win the division for the fifth straight season, given the massive lead they have in the AFC East. However, this matchup could easily result in the No. 1 seed in the AFC being determined, so a head-to-head tiebreaker could be critical.

While the Chiefs undoubtedly have some advantages, the Bills also have plenty of their own. And if they can win in these key areas, they will win this football match.

Naturally, most of the attention in this game is on the quarterback position, as Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are among the best in the world at what they do.

Now, from an overall career standpoint, Mahomes clearly has the edge with two NFL MVP wins, three Super Bowl rings and three Super Bowl MVP awards. But just looking at this 2024 season, it’s clear that Allen is the better quarterback.

During the Chiefs’ undefeated start, Mahomes has thrown just 12 touchdown passes and has a passer rating of 90.3; both represent career-low points totals through nine games. He also had nine interceptions, fourth-most in the NFL. If this pace continues, he will easily surpass his career-worst 14 points a season ago.

Allen, on the other hand, paid great attention to football. He has been known to have turnover issues in the past, but this season has been a different story. Although he threw four interceptions in his last three outings, those were his only four interceptions all year.

His 17 touchdown passes are fourth-most in the league, and his passer rating (100.2) is almost 10 points higher than Mahomes’.

Since the Kansas City defense is one of the best defenses in the league against the run and allows the third-fewest rushing yards per game (83.2), the Bills will likely get airborne frequently, which naturally means Allen needs to be ready. It’s best for Buffalo to take a chance.

It’s no secret that Steve Spagnuolo loves to attack the quarterback, which is why the Chiefs have the third-highest blitz rate on opponent dropbacks (36.9%). But that’s where Allen has excelled this year; He threw for 705 yards and a league-leading 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions when blitzed.

If Allen can continue to stay poised under pressure and get back to protecting the ball, he should have a big day.

The fact is that Kansas City has a better defense than Buffalo; fewer points per game (17.9 to 19.3), fewer rushing yards (83.2 to 123.2) and fewer passing yards (206.7 to 212.9) ) allows.

Adding up those last two numbers, the Chiefs have given up just 289.2 total yards; Fourth-fewest yards in the NFL. The Bills, meanwhile, rank 18th in this regard with 336.1 points.

But where Buffalo has the advantage is in the turnover department.

No matter how good the Chiefs’ defense is, Spags’ team has committed just eight turnovers so far, just enough to tie for 23rd place. However, the Buffalo defense forced 19 turnovers, second most in the league; 11 came from interceptions and the other eight came from fumbles.

With Allen and the offense doing their job protecting the ball, the Bills’ overall turnover differential is +13, best in the league. At -4 the Chiefs are tied for ninth worst. If Buffalo can force Mahomes into a few picks and win the turnover battle, they will win this game.

It’s no secret that the Chiefs have long been one of the best second-half teams in football. For proof of this, look no further than the fact that they’ve overcome 10-point leads in each of their last three Super Bowl wins.

This success continued this season; Eight of the nine wins were come-from-behind wins. And they are in fifth place in the league with +36 points difference in the last 30 minutes.

But Buffalo was even better in this area and it’s all starting to come out of the locker room after the break.

In the third quarter alone, the Bills easily led the NFL in outscoring their opponents by a combined 56 points. Overall, Buffalo has the second-best mark in the league with a +77 point differential in the second half. Pittsburgh Steelers (+80).

If the Bills can avoid a slow start, which has been a problem at times, and keep the game close heading into the second half, they could end the Chiefs’ winning streak.