What does Black Friday’s history tell us about holiday shopping in 2024? Business

Retailers hoping to persuade evasive consumers have already spent weeks Bombarding customers with ads and early offers. Still, whether visiting stores or clicking on countless emails promising big savings, tens of millions of U.S. shoppers are expected to spend money on Black Friday this year.

Industry forecasts predict that 183.4 million people will shop in U.S. stores and online between Thanksgiving and Cyber ​​Monday. National Retail Federation and consumer research firm Prosper Insights & Analytics. Of this number, 131.7 million are expected to shop on Black Friday.

At the same time, Black Friday-like promotions are starting earlier and earlier, as well as the increasing strength of other shopping events (hello). cyber monday ), continue to change the holiday spending landscape.

Here’s what you need to know about the history of Black Friday and where things stand in 2024.

Black Friday falls on the Friday after Thanksgiving every year, or November 29 this year.

The term “Black Friday” is several generations old, but it has not always been associated with: holiday shopping spree what we know today. For example, the gold market crash of September 1869 was specifically called Black Friday.

Use of the expression in relationship Going shopping the day after ThanksgivingHowever, it can mostly be traced back to Philadelphia in the mid-20th century, when police and other city workers had to deal with large crowds gathering before the annual Army-Navy football game and take advantage of seasonal sales.

“That’s why bus drivers and taxi drivers call today ‘Black Friday’. “They think it’s going to give them a headache,” a sales manager at a Gimbels store told the Associated Press in 1975, as he watched a police officer try to check jaywalkers the day after Thanksgiving. Earlier references date back to the 1950s and 1960s.

Jie Zhang, a marketing professor at the University of Maryland Robert H. Smith School of Business, points out that “Black Friday” was mentioned in a New York-based trade publication in 1951; This publication points out that many workers simply called in sick that day. Hoping to have a long holiday weekend after Thanksgiving.

Beginning in the 1980s, national retailers began claiming that Black Friday represented a shift from red to black due to holiday demand. However, experts say this interpretation should be taken with caution, as many retail companies now operate unprofitably at various times of the year.

In recent years, Black Friday has become famous for the number of people flocking to packed stores. Endless numbers of shoppers set up camp at midnight hoping to score big discounts.

However online shopping has made it possible to do most, if not all, of your holiday shopping without ever stepping foot in a store. Although foot traffic in malls and other shopping areas has rebounded since the beginning of the pandemic, e-commerce is not going away.

November sales at brick-and-mortar stores peaked more than 20 years ago. For example, in the fourth quarter of 2003, e-commerce accounted for only 1.7% of total retail sales. Department of Commerce data.

Unsurprisingly, online sales make up a much larger slice of the pie today. During last year’s holiday season, e-commerce amounted to approx. 17.1% of all unadjusted retail sales in the fourth quarter, according to Commerce Department data. This much 12.7% Seen at the end of 2019.

Beyond the rise of online shopping, some of the big-ticket items that get shoppers in the door on Black Friday (like a new TV) are significantly cheaper than they were decades ago, notes Jay Zagorsky, Questrom clinical associate professor at Boston University. Faculty of Business Administration.

“There is less need to stand in line at midnight, when items often associated with doorstep sales are now much cheaper,” Zagorsky told The Associated Press via email. He pointed to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showing that the average TV price has fallen 75 percent since 2014.

While many people will do most of their Black Friday shopping online, estimates from the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights showed that the majority of Black Friday shoppers (65%) still plan to shop in stores this year.

It’s no secret that Black Friday sales don’t just last 24 hours anymore. Emails promising holiday deals are now starting to arrive before Halloween.

“Black Friday is no longer the start of the holiday shopping season. The holiday shopping season is at its peak during what now feels like “Black Friday month,” Zhang said. Some retailers have updated their official marketing strategies to refer to “Black Friday week.”

Zhang said retailers are trying to get a head start on the competition and manage shipping logistics, which helps explain the rush. Offering early holiday deals spreads out purchases, giving shippers more room to fill orders. So Zhang doesn’t expect the five fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year to cause significant distress because retailers would take them into account.

Linking pre-Thanksgiving sales to Black Friday is also a marketing technique, Zhang said, since it’s a name consumers recognize and associate with big, limited-time discounts.

Numerous post-Thanksgiving sales events continue to attract shoppers after Black Friday; Small Business Saturday and Cyber ​​Monday, established in 2005 by the online arm of the National Retail Federation.

US consumers spent a record $12.4 billion Cyber ​​Monday in 2023and $15.7 million per minute during the day’s peak sales hour, according to Adobe Analytics. Adobe Analytics said they spent $9.8 billion online on Black Friday.

Boston University’s Zagorsky said enough people still enjoy shopping after Thanksgiving that this activity is unlikely to end.

While Black Friday’s importance has “diminished a little bit” over time, the shopping event is still “a way to connect with others,” he said. “This social aspect is important and will not go away, ensuring Black Friday is still an important day for retailers.”