According to the expert football model, Oregon vs. Illinois score prediction

New-look Big Ten football action begins on the West Coast as new No. 1 seed Oregon returns home against No. 20 Illinois in college football’s Week 9 matchup. Let’s take a look at the latest predictions for the game from an expert model who predicts scores and picks winners.

Oregon improved to 4-0 in Big Ten play after shutting out Purdue on the road last week and still has its 1-point win over Ohio State in its back pocket when making playoff considerations this season.

Illinois is 3-1 in conference play following its signature victory over Michigan a week ago but isn’t getting a lot of confidence from the models or bettors against the Ducks’ strong lineup.

What do the analytics suggest if the Ducks and Illini meet in this Big Ten matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Oregon and Illinois compare in this Week 9 college football game.

As expected, the models favor the Ducks by a favorable margin over the Illini.

SP+ predicts Oregon to beat Illinois by one Predicted score from 37 to 17 and win the game by an expected margin 20.4 point difference.

The model gives Ducks strong strength 90 percent chance definitive victory in the game.

SP+ is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is this season? The SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread so far with a 52.1 winning percentage after going 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.

oregon one 22 point favorite vs. Illinois, according to lines on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at: 54.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And here’s how he determined Oregon’s odds of winning money: -2000 and for Illinois +1000 To win for sure.

If you are using this prediction to bet on the game, you must:

According to the latest consensus picks for the game, most bettors are taking this side of the action.

Illinois gets strong majority 71 percent Bets to win the game by upset or keep the score on the generous line.

the other 29 percent The betting project’s percentage indicates that the Ducks will win the game and close the gap.

became Oregon 8.3 points better He is in better shape than his opponents when playing at home this season.

And that average rose to the Ducks 19 points better Generally better than the opponent in the last three matches.

Illinois proved 3.5 points worse Better than their opponents when playing away in 2024.

Although this sign heals 0.3 points better More than their opponents in their last three games.

Oregon 19.3 points better More than its rivals overall this season, Illinois 5.8 points better More than his competition in 2024.

Other analytical models also give the Ducks a good chance against the Illini.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer forecasting model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Oregon is expected to win the game overwhelmingly 91.4 percent One of the computer’s latest matchmaking simulations.

This leaves Illinois as the expected winner in the remaining race 8.6 percent from the sims.

Oregon is expected to be 21.1 points better According to the model’s latest prediction, both teams are more on the same field than Illinois in their current composition.

Oregon ranks first among Big Ten teams. 86.6 percent chance To qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI’s metrics.

This model gives the Ducks win total prediction 11.4 games this season.

Illinois has a place 6.2 percent shooting According to the index’s calculations, it is in the 12-team play-off.

This includes total win projections 8.4 games for the Illini at 24.

When: Saturday, October 26
Time: 14:30 CT | 12:30 PT
TV: CBS network

–

Match odds are updated periodically and may change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Calendar | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: bookmark | Rankings | Elections