What will happen to criminal cases if Donald Trump wins or loses the election?

Former President Donald Trump He has a huge personal stake in the upcoming election, which could either send him back to the White House or into the courtroom for years of legal proceedings under the looming threat of incarceration.

No other presidential candidate in history has faced the prospect of such disparate outcomes, with Trump’s legacy, personal fortune and individual freedom likely to be determined by a few thousand undecided state voters.

Trump has vowed to fire special counsel Jack Smith, who has filed two federal lawsuits against him, “within two seconds” if he returns to the White House; He said he would punish the prosecutors and judges who handle his cases; and will likely avoid the serious consequences of the criminal charges he continues to face.

“If he wins, say goodbye to all criminal cases,” said Karen Friedman Agnifilo, who previously served as chief of the Manhattan district attorney’s trial division.

Friedman Agnifilo said that Trump’s victory would be a “get out of jail free card” for the former president and added, “Criminal cases, whether legal or practical, are over.”

If he loses the election, Trump faces years of court proceedings, hundreds of millions of dollars in civil penalties and the possibility of prison time in the criminal case filed in New York on November 26.

Here’s what could happen in each of Trump’s criminal cases.

New York hush money case

Trump’s most pressing post-election legal issue was his Nov. 26 conviction on 34 felonies for falsifying business records to conceal a 2016 hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.

Defense lawyers twice successfully managed to delay sentencing, the first time by asking for the case to be dismissed due to the president’s immunity, and the second time by highlighting the political risks of sentencing before the election. New York Judge Juan Merchan, who described Trump’s trial as a case that “stands alone in a unique place in the history of this country,” opted to delay sentencing until November to ensure the jury’s verdict “is respected and addressed in an undiluted manner.” “Because of the magnitude of the upcoming presidential election.”

While people first convicted of falsifying business records normally avoid incarceration, legal experts told ABC News there were unique factors in Trump’s case — including the fact that he was arrested on ten counts of criminal contempt and was found to have falsified business records to influence the election. – The judge may force Merchan to serve a prison sentence. When ABC News surveyed 14 legal experts about Trump’s sentencing in June, five believed prison time was likely, two said the verdict was a distortion, and seven believed prison time was unlikely.

Although new circumstances could affect Judge Merchan’s decision, sentencing could continue in November if Trump wins the election, according to Boston College law professor Jeffrey Cohen. Merchan may choose to impose a lighter sentence, such as one day of probation, or delay the sentence until Trump leaves office.

Noting that a delayed sentence could encourage Trump to remain in office, Cohen said, “A sitting president is not forced to be imprisoned while continuing his presidency, and therefore can theoretically continue his duty after leaving office.” for as long as possible.

“If he wins, realistically speaking, I don’t think there will be any meaningful punishment for that,” Friedman Agnifilo said.

Trump’s lawyers may also attempt to delay sentencing in light of the election results, and the former president still has several extraordinary legal efforts to delay the trial. Judge Merchan plans to issue a ruling on November 12 on Trump’s request to dismiss the case because of the Supreme Court’s recent decision granting him immunity from criminal prosecution for official actions he took as president, and if Merchan denies the request, Trump may do so . Try to appeal immediately to further delay the sentence.

Trump also asked the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit to move the state case to federal court; His lawyers could use this to get a suspended sentence. Unlike federal cases, for which Trump could theoretically pardon himself, the state case would likely fall outside the scope of a presidential pardon even if Trump successfully took the case to federal court, according to Cohen.

Federal election interference lawsuit

In the shadow of the presidential race, U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan is considering how Trump’s case to overturn the federal election should proceed in light of the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling that delayed the case by nearly a year. Fifteen months after Trump pleaded guilty to charges of undertaking a “criminal scheme” to overturn the 2020 election results, Judge Chutkan laid out a schedule for the case that extends beyond the election, with deadlines for key filings set by the end of December. 19.

Trump has promised to fire Smith if re-elected, but that may not be necessary because the Justice Department’s long-standing policy prohibits prosecuting a sitting president; This means that federal lawsuits against Trump could be halted immediately if Trump takes office.

Even as Smith tries to continue his investigation in the two months between the election and the inauguration, there is little he can do to revive the case, according to Pace University law professor Bennett Gershman.

“They can continue to do what they’re doing, but at the end of the day it won’t really matter if Trump appoints an attorney general who will seek to drop the charges,” Gershman said. .

Although Trump’s federal trial will inevitably end if he wins, it’s unclear exactly how that will happen. Smith could attempt to issue a final report on his findings, Trump could face a dispute with Congress or the acting attorney general over Smith’s removal, or Judge Chutkan could oppose the Justice Department’s final move to dismiss the charges.

If Trump loses the election, Judge Chutkan is expected to continue considering whether any of the claims in the case are protected by presidential immunity. Its final decision will likely be appealed and could end up back in the Supreme Court, which could mean delaying the trial for at least another year, experts say.

Federal classified documents case

After U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed Trump’s criminal lawsuit for withholding classified documents and obstructing government efforts to retrieve them, Smith asked the appeals court to argue that Cannon’s decision regarding the appointment and funding of special counsels “could jeopardize the long-running case.” He asked for the case to be restarted. “He runs the Justice Department’s operations and questions hundreds of appointments in the Executive Branch.”

According to Friedman Agnifilo, if Trump wins the election, prosecutors will likely have no choice but to withdraw their objections, strengthening Judge Cannon’s dismissal of the case.

If Trump loses the election, it will be a long way for the case to reach trial. Prosecutors must successfully persuade the Atlanta-based 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to reverse Cannon’s dismissal, and Trump’s team has already advanced a defense based on presidential immunity that could be the basis for a future appeal.

Facing a series of unfavorable rulings, Smith will also face the important decision of whether to ask Judge Cannon to recuse himself from the case, according to Cohen.

“I’m not sure what his reasons are right now, other than ‘We really don’t like the decision he made,'” said Cohen, who is skeptical of the government’s reasons for the rejection based on hearing records alone.

In a separate case led by Judge Cannon, defense attorneys for Ryan Routh, who is accused of trying to assassinate Trump at his Florida golf course in September, requested Cannon’s recusal, citing in part ABC News’ reporting that the staff list was open. News reports circulating throughout Trump’s transition operation included Cannon’s name among potential candidates to run for attorney general if Trump is re-elected. Cannon rejected that motion Tuesday, calling discussion of a possible appointment “rumors” and “insinuations.”

“We had a brave, smart judge in Florida. By the way, we have a great judge. I don’t know him. I’ve never talked to him. I’ve never talked to him. But we had a brave and very smart judge,” Trump said. I said it about Cannon last week.

Fulton County election interference lawsuit

Trump’s criminal trial in Fulton County, Georgia, has been stalled since June over his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election in that state; The appeals court is considering the former president’s appeal of Judge Scott McAfee’s decision not to disqualify District Attorney Fani. He criticized Willis for what McAfee called “a significant appearance of impropriety” stemming from a romantic relationship between Willis and a prosecutor on his team. The Georgia appeals court scheduled oral argument on whether Willis can proceed with his case on Dec. 6.

When asked about the future of the trial if Trump wins the election, Trump defense attorney Steve Sadow told Judge McAfee last December that the trial would likely have to wait until Trump’s term ends.

Since August 2023, when Trump was charged with 13 felonies in Fulton County, Judge McAfee has reduced the indictment by throwing out five of the charges Trump was originally charged with.

If he loses the election, Trump could try to stop the lawsuit by continuing to push for Willis to be disqualified or by invoking a presidential immunity defense.

“The indictment in this case charges President Trump for actions that are central to his official responsibilities as President,” Trump’s lawyers wrote in a motion filed in January. he wrote.