Europe to install 110 GW of solar power by 2025 – S&P

These figures will almost double the installed capacity recorded in 2023. Europe adds a record 56GW of solar PVAccording to the annual report on the European market by trade association SolarPowerEurope (SPE). This also represents a big increase to SPE’s 2024 forecast of 62GW, while S&P figures are closer to 100GW (95GW) for this year. It is worth noting that SPE’s forecast is made in December 2023.

Coman said key markets for the growth of solar PV over the past few years have been Germany, Eastern Europe, Spain and Italy. These markets accounted for almost half of the total installed capacity in Europe.

Coman explained that despite this rapid growth at the beginning of the decade, the growth rate will slow down in the second half of the 2020s. This is due to the increasing difficulty of grid interconnection. as previously described in PV TechFor solar energy to continue its growth, more investment is needed in the grid. “The number one thing we need to do is invest in the grid,” Coman said.

He explained that another challenge for European markets is the low and unstable energy pricing experienced in recent months, which will affect the utility-scale market in the future. By the end of the decade, the European market is expected to reach an annual installed capacity of 130 GW.

Although utility scale looks more challenging in the second half of this decade, Coman said the rooftop market will see strong and consistent growth in the coming years, “rising from a market of approximately 60 GW in 2024 to an 85 GW market in 2030.” . .”

Global installations will reach 580 GW in 2025

Talking about global trends, Coman said S&P predicts global solar installations will reach 580 GW in 2025; This is in significant contrast to BloombergNEF’s latest estimates. They have global installations of around 600 GW for this year. “We see growth slowing slightly to reach a growth rate of 7% in 2025,” Coman added.

This growth is mainly driven by China, which has doubled its installed PV capacity in the last few years and added the same amount in 2023 as the entire global market in 2022. This doesn’t mean other markets aren’t seeing growth in PV. Capacity additions since the beginning of the decade. Coman explained that between 2021 and 2024, the number of annual gigawatt-scale markets increased from 16 to 45, almost tripling in three years. “What we’re seeing is an expansion of where solar is installed,” he said.

This year, in three markets in Europe alone (Romania, Lithuania and Ireland), more than 1 GW of solar capacity will be added in a single year for the first time. Malaysia, Uzbekistan and Iran will also install more than 1 GW of PV capacity this year or next.

“While developed markets will maintain high installation levels in the coming years, it is actually these growing markets that we need to look at to move the solar market forward in the coming years,” Coman explained, adding that growth will occur in Europe and Asia, excluding China, through untapped markets in the coming years. will cause solar PV to grow further.

Additionally, Coman noted that the gap between supply and demand, which is the ongoing oversupply in the solar industry, will decrease in 2025 but “will remain in the market for years to come” and prices will stabilize over the next few years.