Don’t be fooled by Justin Herbert’s QB21 ranking (Video)

A simple look at match results or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worthy of closer examination.

Yes… Numbers Lie.

Calvin Ridley’s WR36 ranking is a lie

Ridley has averaged 10.7 touchdowns, 6.7 catches and 100.0 receiving yards while throwing two touchdowns in three games since DeAndre Hopkins was traded. He was Fantasy’s WR5 in points per game during that span. ridley sports 32% TPRR (targets per route run), 3.03 YPRR and 41% first read target rate They are WR1 numbers since Hopkins left.

It’s a small sample, but it also encourages Ridley to continue producing after Will Levis returned last week. Moreover, Ridley third easiest program remaining for wide receivers The league is the toughest yet.

Ridley’s impressive odds will regress a bit, and this is still an offense (at the time) with a low implied total of 16.75 points this week. Levis can struggle against Minnesota’s offense). But Ridley’s usage once Hopkins is gone is undeniable, and he suddenly looks like a top-20 WR (even with some bad stuff sprinkled in).

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Justin Herbert’s QB21 ranking is a lie

Herbert was Fantasy’s QB21 in points per game but was QB9 over the past four weeks. He is averaging a career-high 7.8 YPA with an 11:1 TD:INT ratio, but volume has been an issue for his fantasy production. Chargers are 25th in the rankings number of passes per match. Los Angeles only scored 13.1 points per game and would be in the top 15 in NFL history if the season ended. The Chargers’ red zone defense (38.9%) is likely to regress.

Moreover, Los Angeles has a convenient schedule. loaded with low projected totalsbut the Chargers’ upcoming matchups many more combat features. Herbert has had the 10th-difficult QB fantasy schedule so far, but has the sixth-easiest one the rest of the season. Chargers are one of nine teams with positive results pass rate above expectations Like last month in Los Angeles Definitely thrown in more since the bye. Herbert also ran more after leaving Los Angeles, possibly a sign that his foot was feeling better.

Different game scenarios to come will help further translate Herbert’s great performance into fantastic production. Season rankings are quite misleading.

Chase Brown’s RB26 ranking is a lie

Brown played a career-high 89% of his 24 RB opportunities last week. Newcomer Khalil Herbert played two snaps and fumbled a fumble, leading to a fumble. Leonard Fournette training on Monday. Brown had a season-high 75% route participation and had a career-high 11 targets. He’s seen 100% of the Bengals’ RB snaps over the last two weeks; including a whopping nine opportunities inside the 10-yard line. With Zack Moss out for the season, Brown has Cincinnati’s backfield to himself.

Brown has been the fantasy RB3 since Moss went down last week in Baltimore despite facing a Ravens’ defense that allowed just 56.8 RB rushing yards per game. Joe Burrow looked great, so Brown is in terrific shape. He faces a tough game on the road against the Chargers this week and then the bye, but Brown needs to be a top-12 player down the stretch.

Jauan Jennings’ 32 catches are a lie

Jennings ranks 50th among pass catchers in receptions this season, but his volume will continue to increase with Brandon Aiyuk out for the season. Jennings managed San Francisco In his first game without Aiyuk last week, he was on routes running, targets, catches, air yards and receiving yards. Achieved the sixth highest rating in the league first reading target sharing (38.5%) last week and Brock Purdy has the league’s fourth-best Passer Rating (134.5) when targeting Jennings. Ranked second in NFL yards per route runeighth fantasy points per route run and 10th out of 117 pass catchers. ESPN’s Retrieval Score.

Jennings owns 32% TPRR Aiyuk is off the field and he is no longer He replaces BA as the 49ers’ “X” receiver. Jennings scored 41 fantasy points in Week 3 Deebo Samuel Sr. He left the game – the only other game in which he acted as SF’s WR2. Jennings is no Terrell Owens 2.0, but he can clearly play; Now he will see a much bigger opportunity a strong crime because of major red zone regression.

The 49ers’ offense looks crowded with Christian McCaffrey returning, but Samuel Sr. has been slowed by multiple injuries and George Kittle is dealing with hamstring irritation. Jennings’ results include suddenly being ranked in the top 12 at WR.