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Can we believe these early NBA shooting trends? Julius Randle and others get off to an unusual start (Video)

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Can we believe these early NBA shooting trends? Julius Randle and others get off to an unusual start (Video)

One of the great things about sports is the unpredictable nature of future events.

Just as the old generation slowly fades away from one season to the next, great new heroes can emerge from clashes between formidable rivals and cement themselves as the names of tomorrow.

The fact that we don’t know exactly what to expect is why we’ve religiously tuned in to follow the ins and outs of a league played 24/7.

Such an element as scoring efficiency can also be unpredictable and dramatically change the course of events, to both our delight and disappointment, depending on which side you lean on.

This year, five players and one team stand out as having strayed from their usual paths. Considering it’s still early in the season, it’s time to take a look at them and consider the overarching question: Is this a thing?

’24-25: 37.9% FG, 31.0% 3FG, 54.1% TS
’23-24: 42.8% FG, 38.1% 3FG, 61.2% TS

The former MVP suffered a significant drop in efficiency earlier this season, and the problem is present almost everywhere.

At 6-foot-1, Harden has always been built like a tank, using his raw power to get to the basket and converting nearly 64% of his shots from within 6-foot-5 throughout his career.

Before the weekend, Harden’s rate this year had dropped to 53.3%, meaning he took half of his shots close to the basket; It’s a worrying decline for a player who practically lives there to draw fouls and finish shots against taller opponents.

Harden is now 35 and has a lot of minutes left in his legs. Considering both the regular season and the playoffs totaled 43,500 minutes, it’s no surprise that Harden is feeling the pain of a body that can no longer handle the punishment.

That doesn’t mean the All-Star guard isn’t productive. Despite his shooting problems, he still averages 20.6 points, 7.9 rebounds and 8.5 assists per game, and these numbers are numbers that can easily carry him throughout the season. But efficiency and lack of athletic pop are real concerns.

Is this a thing?

Yes and no. Harden’s athletic decline will cost him some efficiency points around the basket, but he’s smart enough to find ways to make up for it. It’s possible the three-point shot will return, which he can rely on more so he can move on. But the game has changed, and the sooner we accept that, the better.

’24-25: 59.3% FG, 44.6% 3FG, 67.9% TS
’23-24: 48.4% FG, 29.4% 3FG, 54.0% TS

No Bulls fan alive will call Vučević’s signing at the 2021 trade deadline a victory. In addition to Wendell Carter Jr., the Bulls also waived the rights to Franz Wagner and Jett Howard.

What they got in return was an inconsistent center who never quite grasped his role, even though his strengths were overwhelmingly on the offensive side of the ball.

This season, Vučević is playing basketball at an All-Star level, shooting everything from anywhere, including a nearly 13 percentage point increase in conversion rate around the basket.

Some might argue that the floor has been cleared due to the departure of DeMar DeRozan, giving the Montenegrin more scope to operate. There may be some truth to that logic, but it doesn’t quite explain his sudden explosion as a three-point shooter.

The Bulls have to hope that some teams embrace Vučević’s new numbers so they can give him up in a trade and get something back that could help a future rebuild, which still needs to happen.

Is this a thing?

No. Vučević will have a better season than last season due to his excellent start, but his numbers are simply unsustainable unless he makes a radical change at age 34 to become a center version of Kevin Durant. Make the most of this situation, Chicago.

’24-25: 33.7% FG, 23.4% 3FG, 47.0% TS
’23-24: 46% FG, 40.6% 3FG, 60.2% TS

The world went absolutely crazy after the Denver Nuggets failed to protect their starting shooting guard, leading to repeated criticisms of their internal processes.

At the same time, Orlando was celebrated for signing the two-way wing to a $66 million deal over three years.

Things now appear to be turning around, with Denver handing over the spot previously occupied by Caldwell-Pope to Christian Braun and Braun thriving in the role.

Caldwell-Pope is no longer playing with the best point guard in the NBA, Nikola Jokić, and he’s playing on a team that still needs a reliable point guard to get the offense on the right track. This explains some of this, but not all.

The truth is that Caldwell-Pope is having an epic shooting slump, making it nearly impossible to gauge his true talents due to the factors mentioned above.

Is this a thing?

Yes. Caldwell-Pope benefited greatly from playing with Jokić, who passed the ball to him 12.3 times per game last year, giving him a reliable basis for what to expect when he takes the field. That predictable presence is gone and that will affect his play. That doesn’t mean he won’t improve as the season progresses, but his elite shooting is unlikely to return this year.

’24-25: 50.7% FG, 38.2% 3FG, 62.4% TS
’23-24: 47.2% FG, 31.1% 3FG, 56.9% TS

If you think Randle’s efficiency gap is minimal, you’re dead wrong.

But it depends on expectations. Randle would be joining a frontcourt of Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels, meaning spacing wouldn’t be a major asset.

But Randle took a lot of outside shots (including the game-winning 3-pointer on Sunday), converted at a higher rate on his shots near the rim, and generally looked much more at home in Minnesota’s offense than expected.

That doesn’t mean he’s a perfect fit just because Wolves are playing a level or two below what they were last year. But Randle has somehow found success within the confusing roster structure, negating interest in Anthony Edwards and moving into the second-leading scorer role. This seems to have benefited him.

Is this a thing?

Strangely enough, yes. Randle appears to have taken a year off and a year off from his productivity numbers and appears to have started this season as well. He found a place for himself in the offensive structure and was given the green light to create more, leading to an increase in his confidence and shooting ability. Come on figure!

’24-25: 30.9% FG, 21.9% 3FG, 39.6% TS
’23-24: 46.8% FG, 40.8% 3FG, 61.3% TS

Yes, yes. Caruso is not a high-scoring shooter, but a defensive connector; So why do we look at its specific efficiency?

For starters, because the disparity is so great, but also because of the expectations of being added to a loaded Thunder roster where open shots will be easy to come by in the flow of the offense.

This all happened and Caruso seems very clear; 43.6% of his shots are considered “wide open,” meaning the nearest defender is more than six feet away. On these shots, Caruso converts only 20.8%; This is an incredibly low figure.

This comes on the heels of the best shooting season of his career and has transformed him into an even more dangerous weapon.

Fortunately, his role is low and the Thunder can produce efficient offense without him. This is not a big problem; At least until he starts taking the same shots in the playoffs.

Is this a thing?

Despite the sad percentages… not yet. Caruso made 55 shots on the season, including 32 3-pointers. The sample size is so small that a week of consistent shooting percentages could sway it in its favor. If it’s still struggling to this extent by mid-January, it’s time to worry.

’24-25: 33.1% 3FG, 24.6 assists, 34.4 3PA
’23-24: 36.6% 3FG, 28.3 assists, 39.3 3PA

Remember the space Vučević freed up due to the departure of DeMar DeRozan? The kings may have undertaken this.

DeRozan has been excellent for Sacramento, but he remains an absolute slot-eater and heavy isolation scorer who takes over the offense. When he converts at a high rate, gets fouled and sets up his teammates, it’s great.

However, less ball movement comes with a cost. The Kings, who drafted both De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, currently rank 22nd in the league in assists, although they should have gone in the opposite direction.

His 3-point shooting has also decreased. They ranked third in three-point attempts last season, but this season they ranked 23rd in that department, barely reaching a 31% efficiency rate.

Of course, all of this is not limited to DeRozan. The Kings have embraced the mid-range shot and are actively seeking it out more than last year. Will this cost them a win at the end of the season? It depends on how many close games DeRozan and Fox save them from, but otherwise the answer should be yes.

Sacramento has showcased an explosive offensive identity over the past few seasons and is looking to maintain that by adding volume through DeRozan. Having three scorers who can get you 25 points when needed is indeed a luxury, but is it a luxury the Kings can afford at the expense of the unpredictability of their offense?

Is this a thing?

There’s a world where that works, especially as DeRozan has the ability to shrink as the season progresses, allowing Keegan Murray’s skills as a shooter to excel. Otherwise, this could be something that might not be well received by Kings fans.

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