Five reasons why the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement failed

The guns were largely silent on Wednesday morning as a ceasefire between Israel And Hezbollah It came into force after 14 months of war, allowing both sides to count the cost.

Lebanese prime minister Najib Mikati hailed a “new page” in history as displaced families returned to their homes in devastated areas of southern Lebanon.

But 13-article agreement – and the controversial additional understanding – have raised concerns that this round of hostilities could soon be followed by another.

Israel’s operations in Lebanon will continue

Israel opened fire on suspected militants returning to southern Lebanon on Wednesday morning; This is an indication of the tensions that could arise if Israeli forces remain in the country.

While Hezbollah has moved its forces north of the Litani River and away from the Israeli border, Israel has 60 days to withdraw under the terms of the agreement.

The terms of the agreement, a strengthened version of UN Resolution 1701 that ended the last war in 2006, call for the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers to replace them. A committee consisting of the UN, Lebanon, Israel, France and the USA will monitor the violations.

Israel also says it reserves the right to ship weapons to Hezbollah and perceives the group’s efforts to rearm or rebuild military infrastructure in southern Lebanon. Israel’s far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich said that the civilian houses destroyed by Israeli forces in the region should be considered as military infrastructure that cannot be rebuilt.

The United States has said it would support Israel’s right to punish violations of the agreement, which it claims is a separate understanding from the main agreement. The Lebanese government says this is unacceptable and denies any violation of its sovereignty.

Professor Kobi Michael, a military analyst at Israeli think tanks the Institute for National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute, predicts that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will continue operations in Lebanon indefinitely.

“The IDF will continue to ‘mow the lawn’ after 60 days and wherever control forces are not doing their job,” he said, using a term originally coined for regular actions against militants in Gaza.

Senior lecturer at King’s College London School of Security Studies, Dr. Andreas Krieg said that the “threshold of breaking the agreement is low” and suggested that Hezbollah fighters simply marching south of the Litani could be considered a violation.

Hezbollah will maintain some presence in Southern Lebanon

Lebanese parliament speaker Nabih Berri, who played a key role in the negotiations, said it would be “easier to move the Litani River to the south than to move Hezbollah to the north.”

Supporters of the militant group have also scoffed at the idea that it could abandon a region that is its heartland, containing its core constituency, non-military networks and most of its firepower.

Hezbollah has dominated Lebanese politics and weak national institutions for years, but now the worn-out Lebanese army will be expected to keep the peace, says Crisis Group’s Lebanon analyst David Wood.

“This ceasefire agreement puts most of the responsibility on the Lebanese army,” he said, noting that the army is expected to be ready to prevent the resurgence of Hezbollah, eliminate weapons facilities and secure the border within 60 days.

“The Lebanese military is cash-strapped and under-resourced as Lebanon has been experiencing an economic crisis that has affected the military since 2019,” Wood said.

“At the very least, the Lebanese army will need a lot of support from the international community.”

Michael Young, senior editor at the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Center, said the ban on Hezbollah cannot be absolute.

“Young members of Hezbollah will not leave their villages and there is no mechanism to filter these people,” he said.

“I think Israel’s main goal is to ensure that heavy weapons are removed from the south and that these villages are not used as potential grounds for attacks against Israel.”

Many Israelis not ready to return to their homes in the north

While Lebanese civilians returned to their homes in the south, Israelis did not return as quickly to the northern regions, which turned into ghost towns due to Hezbollah fire.

Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahuhas declared the return of nearly 60,000 displaced Israelis as a top priority in the war with Hezbollah, but many residents remain uncertain and angry about the agreement. One resident told the BBC the deal was an “irresponsible and hasty political decision”.

In the statements made by the army, residents of the region who were considering returning to their homes in the north were advised to be careful. Dr Michael said most people would not return “not now or anytime soon”.

He added: “I think most of them would prefer to see what happens there, how determined Israel and the IDF will be. There is great disappointment among them and they do not trust the government.”

While these communities remain displaced, a reminder of the failure of a major war objective and a strain on the economy as many are housed in state-funded temporary shelters, hawkish elements of Israel’s hard-line Israeli government who wish to continue their attacks on Hezbollah are freed from this plight. can benefit. to press for further military action.

US participation in the audit committee

The biggest change in UN resolution 1701, which provides the framework for the ceasefire agreement, is that the United States has joined a committee that monitors violations.

US President Joe Biden said he would support his administration’s action against Hezbollah if Israel violates the rules. The new US Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, has suggested a full-scale return to hostilities in the event of a violation. “(Israel) reserves the right to restart the conflict if Hezbollah breaks the ceasefire,” he said.

most Donald Trump’s Top appointees like new Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz are staunch supporters of Israel who support aggressive actions against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran and oppose ceasefire pressures.

Mike Dubowitz, president of the hawkish pro-Israel think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said on The agreement expires after the Trump administration takes over.

However, former Middle East Minister Alistair Burt suggested that Washington, which brokered the agreement, would invest in its success.

“Americans are committed to this, and so they’re taking a degree of risk, and they won’t want to look like fools,” he said.

“They’ve gotten this this far, they won’t want it to fail.”

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Massacre continues in Gaza

While some peace has been achieved in Lebanon, the massacre continues continues in Gaza Following the deadly Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, more than 44,000 people were reported killed during Israel’s offensive. Hezbollah joined the war to support its allies.

The Lebanese group had vowed to continue attacks against Israel until a ceasefire was agreed to in Gaza; It has now renounced this commitment with the ceasefire agreement.

But the ongoing destruction in Gaza and the possibility of permanent occupation and settlement, as advocated by some Israeli ministers, could lead to more attacks on Israel by Iran-allied militias such as the Houthis in Yemen. Palestinian militant groups in Lebanon, where both Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad have a presence, may also launch attacks on Lebanese territory that would cause Israel to respond.

Wood said Netanyahu thought the separation of the fronts and the isolation of Hamas from its ally was a great success and that he was unlikely to feel pressure to extend the ceasefire to Gaza.

“The Lebanon ceasefire gives a freer hand in Gaza rather than pushing it towards a ceasefire,” he said.