2024 Election Night Guide: Which States to Watch Hour by Hour?

It’s time for our quadrennial post on how to watch Election Day returns for early clues as to where the night might go.

Election Day is Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Short Answer: Watch Georgia, Florida and North Carolina for early signs of a Trump wave or Trump slump

If you don’t have time to read the entire article, Cliffs Notes’ answer is to watch Florida and North Carolina, but don’t be fooled by the early numbers. Eric Daugherty is an indispensable source of choice on X provides some context For early tea leaves:

REMEMBER: States count votes differently in different rows.

For example, Trump will lead Virginia early in the night. Florida will be the most Democratic early in the night because this is a decline in mail-in and early voting… before the election day crash.

I recommend that you do not watch the results as “horse racing”. Every vote will be counted… What matters is the candidate’s advantage or deficit in areas where he or she must perform well as long as there are enough votes.

For example: Allegheny County should get its PA votes pretty quickly. Be careful. If Trump surpasses 2016 by winning the majority of the votes… We can easily say that his chances in PA have increased.

Plus – the New York Times’ “needle” isn’t perfect (the GA got it wrong in 2020), but it gives you an idea of ​​the range of results based on votes counted.

WATCH Georgia and North Carolina first for statewide results… PA will still be slower and obviously the swing states of WI, MI and the West Coast will also last longer.

GA and NC will determine the course of the night. If Trump is hitting in North Carolina AND Georgia, that bodes well for PA and other battlegrounds.

In other words, early early returns are skewed, and it’s best to wait for some of the leading counties to start reporting.

Florida announces all early and mail-in votes as soon as polls close on Election Day. This means that the first numbers coming out of Florida are always in the blue, and often go back to the red column when the real Election Day numbers start coming in. This year, early voting in Florida already looks deeply red, so it’s possible Democrats may never get close to that number. He’s taking the lead in the Sunshine State. It’s not whether Trump wins Florida, but the margin of how much he wins Florida that will give some insight.

Survey Closing Times Map

At work complete the map based on county poll closing times. Note that many states span multiple time zones, so closing times are often staggered by county.

The states to watch are those that are basically light blue as they will close in the earliest evening hours.

19:00 ET

Polls ended statewide in the top six states:

• 28 electoral votes leaning towards Trump: Indiana, Kentucky and South Carolina
• 3 electoral votes tilt towards Harris: Vermont
• 13 electoral votes tilted towards Harris: Virginia
• 16 tossed votes: Georgia

19:30 ET

Polls have ended in three more states:

• 21 electoral votes tilt towards Trump: Ohio and West Virginia
• 16 tossed votes: North Carolina

20:00 ET

Polls have closed in 17 states, including Pennsylvania:

• 4 electoral votes tilt toward Trump: Oklahoma, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District
• 74 electoral votes leaning toward Harris: Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Washington, D.C.
• 23 tossed votes: Pennsylvania and New Hampshire

20:30 ET

Polls closed in Arkansas

• 6 electoral votes went to Trump in Arkansas

21:00 ET

Polls have ended in 15 states:

• 73 electoral votes tilt for Trump, including Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Texas and Louisiana
• 54 electoral votes tilt for Harris, including New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, New York and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District
• 36 tossed votes: Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan

22:00 ET

Polls ended in 3 states:

• 10 electoral votes tilted to Trump, including Utah and Montana
• 6 tossed votes: Nevada

23:00 ET

Polls are closed in 4 states:

• 4 electoral votes tilt towards Trump: Idaho
• 74 electoral votes tilted for Harris, including California, Oregon and Washington

12:00 ET (November 6)

Polls are closing in Hawaii:

• 4 electoral votes went to Harris

01:00 ET (November 6)

Polls are closing in Alaska

• 3 electoral votes tilt towards Trump